spike(company-monitoring): freeze viability and evaluation contract

Parent

#6002

What to build

Freeze the machine-readable evidence contract that decides whether Company Monitoring proceeds beyond fixtures and dark contracts. It must cover source yield, provider-independent rediscovery, two-customer historical usefulness, admission quality, provider policy, and modeled 500-company economics without exposing customer portfolio content.

Acceptance criteria

• Record a preregistered 150-company-year base-rate sample with point estimate at least 0.30 and exact one-sided 90% lower bound at least 0.20.
• Record at least 100 provider-independent rediscovery pairs with point estimate at least 0.60 and exact one-sided 90% lower bound at least 0.50.
• Freeze the two-external-customer historical-usefulness protocol: the same ten admitted impacts, at least one positive, one negative, and one mixed, and at least 70% useful from each customer; internal analysts cannot approve usefulness.
• Freeze every admission-quality threshold, denominator, confidence-bound method, calibration bootstrap seed, and named product-owner approval before the first scored run.
• Document current Exa, X, and model policy plus the production-shaped 500-company cost package and stop/continue decision.
• Machine tests recompute all arithmetic, reject point-only or insufficient-denominator passes, reject unapproved threshold changes, and prove committed fixtures contain only opaque IDs and aggregate counts.

Blocked by

None — can start immediately.

Stop condition

If source viability, rediscovery, the customer-usefulness protocol, provider policy, or modeled unit economics fails its frozen gate, paid-provider implementation stops beyond fixtures and dark contracts.